Key takeaways:
76% of retail traders are net long on Solana, a historically bullish signal.
Treasury firms and institutions are accumulating SOL below $200.
Whale activity is rising ahead of the spot SOL ETF decision on Oct. 16.
Solana (SOL) prices under $200 could be an undervalued range, according to new data highlighting a rare bullish skew among retail traders.
Onchain analytics platform Hyblock said that SOL is currently the only major crypto asset that has the highest percentile when it comes to true retail long percentage (TRA). The trading platform said in an X post,
“Around 76% of retail accounts currently hold net long positions on Solana, a threshold that historically aligns with positive forward returns.”
Hyblock’s backtest of the signal shows that whenever TRA exceeds 75%, SOL’s seven-day mean and median forward returns rise from around +2.25% to over +5%, while average drawdowns decrease. The analysis added that the risk–reward ratio (RR) nearly doubles during these instances, suggesting stronger follow-through on upward moves and reduced downside volatility.
Likewise, crypto analyst Darkfost offered an optimistic outlook, pointing to broader altcoin capitulation as a potential accumulation phase. The trader said that only 10% of Binance-listed altcoins remain above their 200-day moving average, indicating widespread fear and disinterest. Historically, such conditions have preceded notable market rebounds.
Darkfost said, “The best time to gain exposure to altcoins is often when no one wants them anymore,” emphasizing that previous cycles saw similar setups resolve in strong short-term recoveries.
At the moment, corporate digital asset treasuries appear to be taking advantage of SOL’s sub-$200 pricing. Solana treasury company Solmate (Nasdaq: SLMT) purchased $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount, with ARK Invest disclosing a new 11.5% ownership stake. Solmate had earlier raised $300 million to build its digital asset treasury.
Meanwhile, treasury firm SOL Strategies (Nasdaq: STKE) acquired an additional 88,433 SOL, including 79,000 locked SOL from the foundation at an average price of $193.93 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 523,433 SOL. These moves underline coordinated accumulation by institutional players at current price levels.
Related: Bitcoin buyers build bids at $105K as crypto market meltdown nears conclusion
Can SOL hold a position above $200?
While SOL’s long-term outlook remains constructive, its recent dip and daily close below $190 marked the first bearish break of structure since February, signaling a potential shift in momentum on higher time frames.
Although SOL briefly reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), it now trades between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. This compression typically reflects indecision, where short-term momentum weakens while medium-term support holds, often preceding a larger directional move.
Traders may continue bidding under $200, but a swift recovery could be limited. However, SOL recently retested long-term demand zones from $190 to $170, likely absorbing earlier buy orders during the Oct. 10 flash crash.
A continuation might see SOL consolidate to $160 from $200 if the bullish momentum remains underwhelming in the coming days.
Despite the short-term bearish setup, market analyst Pelin Ay said that whale order activity on SOL has started rising again, a trend that has historically preceded rallies of 40%–70%. The analyst said the whales are positioning ahead of the Thursday spot SOL ETF decision, which could catalyze stronger spot demand.
Combined with SOL’s high staking ratio and potential inclusion in multiple publicly listed indexes, a favorable ETF outcome could tighten supply and re-establish SOL’s bullish trajectory above $200.
Related: Ether drops 8%, but traders say ETH price breakout to $10K is ‘loading’
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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